That said, the Chinese want to be liked by foreigners. They love the praise they get from foreign journalists and politicians about their “leading position” in wind and solar development, and about their decision to build lots of wind projects. Of course what the Chinese and foreigners tend to ignore is that all of the capacity of all of the wind energy projects in China amounts to the equivalent of just two coal-fired power plants. And the Chinese are commissioning a new coal-fired power plant every week.

The Chinese, who are always aware of their commercial prospects, are not averse to grab the leading market share to manufacture wind turbines and solar panels (as an aside, manufacturing of solar panels is a highly polluting process in China), along with everything else, and to sell those products to the eco-warrior nations of the western world. Nor are the Chinese averse to receive massive carbon credits from the United Nations and other organizations.

But what China needs to do, urgently, is to deal with the massive amount of black carbon soot that is being produced by burning coal. It also must begin managing the disposal of all sorts of untreated chemicals in surface waters. But those issues appear to have taken a backseat because by joining the war on carbon dioxide, the Chinese appear to believe that they are “giving at the church”.

1. Low carbon everything

“Low carbon” has become the newest fashion in China. Is anybody ready for low-carbon life style, low-carbon economy, low-carbon spending, low-carbon community or low-carbon manufacturing? Earlier this month, during two of China’s most important conferences, the National People’s Political Consultative Conference and the National People’s Congress Conference, the “low carbon” legislation bills submitted by the national representatives amounted to 10 percent of all bills submitted. This is at a time when China has 20 of the 30 most polluted cities in the world and 50,000 newborns die each year because of the pollution.

Since 2006 when carbon trading appeared in the international financial market, China has capitalized on the opportunity. By the end of 2009, China had 730 low-carbon or zero- emission projects, about 60 percent of all global projects, with a yearly carbon dioxide emission reduction of 200 million tonnes (equivalent to monetary gain of over €2 billion). And much of this has been financed with subsidies from the UN’s Clean Development Mechanism.

2. The paradox of the 3 “-ables”

According to the Bali Road Map, emissions reduction from the developed countries such as Britain and the U.S. has to be “measurable, reportable, and verifiable” or as some people call them, “the 3-ables.” In December, during the climate talks at Copenhagen, China was also required to accept the 3-ables by the developed countries. China didn’t announce its response to the requirement until recently when its two important political conferences were held in Beijing.

On March 10, Xie Zhenghua, the deputy director of the National Reform and Development Commission, said that according to the rules of the international treaty, as a developing country, China’s voluntary carbon emission reduction “is not required to be monitored by the international community,” since the programs are not supported by the international community. “China does not accept the monitoring, this is our sovereignty. However, China will report to the international community about China’s policy and action and effects about the carbon emission control every two years.” Xie added that China absolutely cannot accept the 3-ables.

Xie also expressed his suspicion of the international reasoning for climate change action. However, he said that China doesn’t mean to break their promise for emission reduction. To emphasize Xie’s point of view, Wang Guanshou, Director of the National Resource Protection Commission, said that for the last 200 years, the greenhouse gas emissions from the developed countries has been filling the atmosphere. Now the developing countries including China, need development, increasing their carbon dioxide emissions is inevitable. Another official added that the “climate problem is a flower-covered trap set by the western capitalist countries, China shouldn’t sacrifice its economic development by blindly following it.”

3. The facts

It is always tough to go from rhetoric to reality. Promises are easy to make but a lot harder to keep. In 2008, China’s GDP was $4.7 trillion and the primary energy consumption was 2.91 billion tonnes of standard coal equivalent (btce), or 82.35 quadrillion Btu. The energy intensity was 17,521 Btu per $1 of GDP, or about twice that of the US. If China’s GDP increases 8 to 9 percent per year from 2008 to 2020, by 2020, its GDP will be about $11.6 to $13 trillion.

In early January, the NDRC’s Xie said that “China’s primary energy consumption will still be as high as 4.4 btce by 2020.” He indicated that this number was the result of the studies by hundreds of experts for over two years and discussions of multiple meetings. To achieve this goal, China will have to save 2.8 to 3.6 btce per year by 2020, i.e. to reduce energy intensity by 39 to 45 percent. There is long way ahead for China to reach the goal, especially considering that since 2000 China’s energy intensity has increased rather than decreased. (see the figure below)

Energy intensity of US and China

Last November, China declared that by 2020, its carbon emissions per unit of GDP will be 40 to 45 percent lower than they were in 2005. China’s emission was 1,010 tons of carbon dioxide per $1 million of GDP in 2005 (In the US, the figure was about 470 ton for the same amount of GDP). To achieve its stated goal, China will have to reduce its carbon dioxide emissions by about 600 tons of carbon dioxide per $1 million of GDP.

But keep in mind that China is far more coal-dependent than the US and that means cutting its carbon emissions will be extremely difficult. China’s coal consumption in 2008 accounted for 68.7 percent of the its primary energy use. By comparison, in the US, coal accounted for 25% of primary energy.

If China is really serious about reducing its carbon intensity, it will have to use much less coal and much more oil and, especially, gas. This means only one thing: importation of natural gas at a scale that would dwarf those of any other country, including Japan and the US. It will also require China to make massive investments in nuclear.