Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, left, and Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh shakes hands during a meeting in New Delhi, India, Friday, Dec. 5, 2008. Singh said India and Russia have signed a nuclear deal that is expected to see Russia build four nuclear reactors for power starved India. Photo by Dmitry Astakhov:AP

India’s growing nuclear energy program, is attracting the notice of neighboring countries, most notably, Pakistan. After last year’s signing of an agreement between the US and India on civilian nuclear power, India has announced major nuclear energy generation initiatives backed by countries such as the US, France, Russia , Japan and South Korea.

Given India’s lead, Pakistan and Bangladesh may follow suit, even as the international community grows increasingly concerned that nuclear technology could be pilfered for clandestine nuclear weapons programs. While India’s nuclear energy business could eventually be worth $100 billion, some observers say that Pakistan, Bangladesh and perhaps even Myanmar could account for another $30 billion, if they follow India’s lead.

US companies such as General Electric and Westinghouse Electric, Japan’s Toshiba and Hitachi, France’s Areva, and Russia’s Rosatom, are among the top players seeking to garner a share of the business.

India is moving ahead with its nuclear energy program after the removal of international impediments to access technology and fuel.

The chairman of the state controlled Atomic Energy Commission, Anil Kakodkar, recently spoke about plans to construct four 700-megawatt pressurized heavy water reactors (PHWR), with government approvals already in place. The country will follow up with another set of four PHWRs. India hopes to have some 40,000 MW of nuclear power generating capacity online by 2020. “The proportion of nuclear power by 2050 could well be around 50 percent” of India’s power generation, said Kakodkar.

New nuclear power plants at various sites have been planned at Kakrapur, Gujarat, Rawatbhata, Rajasthan, Kudankulam in Tamil Nadu and Jaitapur in Maharashtra .

One crucial element in the progress of nuclear energy is fuel. The increased availability of natural uranium production may help raise the capacity factor of the reactors from the existing low of about 60% this year to as much as 75% by next year. The states of Jharkhand, Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh are increasing their production of uranium and Russia and France have begun exporting uranium pellets to India. “India has really appreciated Russia ’s support in the economic, energy, defense, and nuclear fields and that our relationship stood on its own,” Pratibha Patil, President of India, recently said on a visit to Moscow .

Having played the major part in pushing India’s case as the global “nuclear exception,” despite not being a signatory of the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT), the US doesn’t want to lose out on business opportunities. Washington pushed India ’s case because the country has cemented its position as a responsible democracy in the eyes of the western nations.

Joint Indo-US nuclear reactors are on the drawing boards and two sites have already been discussed. India’s first nuclear power plant after the international approval of the Indo-US nuclear will be in Jaitapur. In July, US Secretary of State Hilary Clinton visited India heading a delegation that included prospective nuclear energy players. Clinton assured India that America is looking to enhance nuclear technology transfer.

And in late September, Canada announced that it is close to a nuclear deal with India. Canadian Trade Minister Stockwell Day said that security and safety concerns should be resolved soon. Cameco, a top Canadian uranium miner, has announced plans to open a marketing office in India.

Meanwhile, Pakistan was not offered a nuclear deal by America because of its record of sheltering terrorists and because of its nuclear know-how, which, thanks to the travels of Pakistani scientists A.Q. Khan, has proliferated in countries such as North Korea, Libya and Iran.

However, Pakistan, under a fledgling democratic rule today is looking at the nuclear energy option. China has been helping Pakistan run its main nuclear power generation facility at Chashma in Punjab province and is helping construct a second nuclear power plant. The Chashma complex may eventually have 600 MW of capacity. Recently, the Chinese foreign minister Yang Jiechi backed Pakistan’s right to nuclear energy. “We would appeal to the world community to understand Pakistan's requirements in this regard,” he said.

Last May, Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari said that France and Pakistan had agreed to cooperate on nuclear energy and safety. That news was initially received with a bit of surprise. While French President Nicolas Sarkozy did not comment, a spokesperson said that Paris was ready, within the framework of its international agreements, to cooperate with Pakistan in the field of nuclear safety. And in August, Pakistan’s Planning Commission Deputy Chairman Assef Ahmed Ali, said that the US and Pakistan are negotiating the transfer of civilian nuclear technology.

Of course, given the ongoing unrest in Pakistan, and the worries about terrorism in the region, just how much of a role nuclear power will have in the country is uncertain. What is certain is that the Indian subcontinent desperately needs more electric generation capacity. And nuclear offers an attractive, if imperfect, option.