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This one was conducted by the grid operator in Texas for submission to the state public utilities commission; the tables that start on page 100 and go to the end of the document quantify the CO2 emissions savings of various penetrations of wind energy:

http://www.ercot.com/news/presentations/2006/ATTCH_A_CREZ_Analysis_Report.pdf

This DOE report was assembled by over 100 experts and was signed off on by the Department of Energy; it found CO2 savings of 825 million tons per year from a scenario in which wind provides 20% of our electricity:

http://www.20percentwind.org/20percent_wind_energy_report_05-11-08_wk.pdf  
 

Perhaps you would believe the German grid operator, E.ON Netz?

“E.ON Netz, the transmission system operator of the E.ON Group, has more

practical experience in integrating large volumes of wind power into the system than virtually any other operator. The Wind Report 2005 covers these experiences.

. . Wind energy is only able to replace traditional power stations to a limited extent.

Their dependence on the prevailing wind conditions means that wind power has a limited load factor even when technically available. It is not possible to guarantee its use for the continual cover of electricity consumption. Consequently, traditional power stations with capacities equal to 90% of the installed wind power capacity must be permanently online in order to guarantee power supply at all times.

. . Wind power feed-in can only be forecast to a limited degree. The transmission system operator must balance out variations between the forecast wind power and the actual feed-in using the short-term use of reserve capacity.

. . In 2004 two major German studies investigated the size of contribution that wind farms make towards guaranteed capacity. Both studies separately came to virtually identical conclusions, that wind energy currently contributes to the secure production capacity of the system, by providing 8% of its installed capacity. As wind power capacity rises, the lower availability of the wind farms determines the reliability of the system as a whole to an ever increasing extent. Consequently the greater reliability of traditional power stations becomes increasingly eclipsed. As a result, the relative

contribution of wind power to the guaranteed capacity of our supply system up to the year 2020 will fall continuously to around 4%.

. . In concrete terms, this means that in 2020, with a forecast wind power capacity of over 48,000MW (Source: dena grid study), 2,000MW of traditional power production can be replaced by these wind farms.”

Oh, I believe Germany’s wind share of demand was 7% in 2008.

You say that wind power cuts CO2 emissions. Can you point me to any peer-reviewed studies that can support that point?

Thanks

rb

By the way, your numbers on Germany are way off. Germany is at around 8% wind penetration, not 20%. Maybe that accounts for why wind was displacing 8% of fossil fuels?

Michael Goggin, American Wind Energy Association  
 

Due to seasonal and daily patterns of wind power fluctuating with the weather, capacity factors are not a true measure of the useful production of wind farms. Back-up generation is required from traditional sources to give wind a level of reliability. Plus the use of inconsistent wind energy increases the need for fossil fuel generating plants to operate inefficiently on standby mode.

Germany has the largest amount of wind power capacity in the world, which is approximately 20% of their total generation. The Germans have extensive operational experience with wind farms and have determined that their displacement factor was only 8% in 2004. They project it to decrease to 4% by 2020 as they add additional wind capacity. As intermittent wind power capacity rises, the reliability of the supply system as a whole will lower by an ever-increasing amount, which will require more back up from other sources.

The grid operator in Texas is finding the same results.

Wind plants are being built to provide large amounts of low-cost electricity to reduce the use of expensive fossil fuels and the pollution that results from their use. Folks in Texas can tell you that wind energy has already saved them billions of dollars by reducing the use of expensive natural gas and coal, while also reducing carbon dioxide emissions by millions of tons. Since reducing fossil fuel use and emissions are both issues of energy and not capacity, from that perspective the only metric that matters is the capacity factor of a wind plant. While a capacity factor of 35% may sound low to some, that is actually significantly higher than the capacity factors of other types of power plants. Natural gas plants typically have capacity factors of around 10%, hydroelectric plants are often around 25-30%. Even coal plants typically only have capacity factors that are in the 60-70% range.

For those who would like to delve a little deeper into the difference between energy and capacity, I would suggest this article:

http://www.awea.org/pubs/factsheets/Baseload_Factsheet.pdf

Michael Goggin, American Wind Energy Association  
 

The "capacity factor" of the wind generation is a higher number--typically about 35%. This looks over the course of the entire year, and tells how much wind ENERGY can be expected.

For comparison purposes, coal & natural gas plants typically have a capacity factor of 90%. Thus, 10,000 MW of wind capacity with a 35% capacity factor will produce the equivalent energy as about 3900 MW of fossil-fuel based generation.

It is well known that wind generation is not very dependable for peak summer needs. But over the course of a year, it will produce a lot of energy, which will displace the burning of natural gas and coal during those hours.

So, it's important to consider both the long-term energy produced by wind, and not just the availability of wind during peak hour conditions. They are two different things.