 |
|
Posted on Jun. 02, 2009
By Rick Smead
Why Isn’t Natural Gas Playing More of a Role in National Energy Policy?
Ed note: This article appeared in Navigant Consulting’s June newsletter, NG Market Notes. It is reprinted here with their permission. As the Waxman-Markey American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009 (Waxman-Markey, or HR 2454) was voted out in the House Energy and Commerce Committee on May 21, we have continued to review the immediate and potential role of natural gas in our clean-energy future. The saga of this role just seems to go on, without any clear resolution. Following the release of Navigant Consulting’s North American Natural Gas Supply Assessment for the American Clean Skies Foundation last year, many leading industry experts evolved to a perception of supply abundance. Additionally, of course, the industry produced a significant surplus of deliverability, even before the onset of the world’s economic turmoil. As previously noted here, production from the major gas shale plays had increased on an exponential curve over the past ten years. Even with the rapid backing-off of new development that has been necessary to respond to the oversupply situation, the industry has merely succeeded in slowing the rate of growth, not in stopping it. The noteworthy estimates of recoverable shale gas included in the Navigant Consulting study have, to some extent, been overtaken and outdone by more recent releases. (For example, Dr. Terry Engelder, the preeminent expert on the Marcellus Shale, has moved his estimate of recoverable resource from twenty percent to almost 150 percent of Navigant Consulting’s high-end estimate.) The bottom line is that we have a lot of domestic natural gas supply, both in terms of the deliverability that can be developed in the near term, and in terms of the ultimate resource that will define the life of that deliverability. The role natural gas could play in immediately reducing carbon dioxide by displacing older, less efficient coal power generation is clear, and the role natural gas could play to displace foreign oil use in vehicle fuel over the next decade is equally clear. However, none of this seems to be happening, or at least to be embraced by key policymakers. There are three areas of questions/issues/misperceptions surrounding natural gas that could be keeping it from moving to the front of the policy queue. First is supply perception: Despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary, many policymakers still seem to perceive natural gas as a scarce resource. Second is environmental perception: Because natural gas is so frequently addressed in concert with oil (often through the industry’s own doing), the general resistance to domestic drilling creates a general resistance to relying on domestic natural gas. Third is new-solution trendiness: Natural gas is a longstanding resource that is cleaner than all other fossil fuels, but that does not fit the model of policymakers who want to go directly to the “final solution” of zero-carbon renewables. It is worth analyzing each of these areas to try to determine what the nation needs to do to take advantage of this domestic resource that could address so many problems. The second and third areas -- the combination with oil in policymakers’ minds, and lack of trendiness as the final solution -- do not take a lot of discussion. Natural gas is fundamentally different from oil -- in its cost, environmental impact, and domestic abundance; and long-term zero-carbon solutions are a great idea, but if we have to wait a decade or two before much progress is made on them, that’s a decade or two of continued high carbon emissions that could have been mitigated with a switch to natural gas. It is really the first issue, the perception of current and future supply capabilities, that really underlies most debates around natural gas. So it is the issue that must, once again, be examined in detail. Scarce Supply? One of the most frustrating things about the “scarcity” argument is its ability to shape-shift. One minute the skeptics express concern that not enough natural gas can come forth quickly enough at a reasonable price to support large increases in demand. But then, when shown that it can and will come forth (and in fact is coming forth at record levels), they shift to concern that we are consuming a scarce resource faster than we should. Two excellent examples of this shifting focus are the comments of Energy Secretary Stephen Chu in April regarding natural gas, and the language that made it into the Administration’s budget proposals to increase taxes on the natural gas industry. At April’s Energy Information Administration Annual Conference, Secretary Chu was asked where he stood on the use of natural gas as a vehicle fuel. Happily, he did not say it was a bad solution in terms of efficacy at displacing foreign oil, reducing pollution, and reducing costs at the pump. However, what he did say was that increased use of natural gas would cause “tension” in supplies for industrial and other users of natural gas, thus driving up prices. His statement only makes any sense if he believes that the daily and annual production of natural gas cannot and will not respond to demand increases to keep the supply-demand balance, and thus prices, stable. Meanwhile, the budget package’s underlying assumption about the resource base represents the long-term scarcity misperception. In a recent explanatory note as to why the Administration wants to eliminate an expense deduction for intangible drilling costs, it said, “To the extent expensing encourages overproduction of oil and gas, it is detrimental to long-term energy security. . .” Once again, natural gas is wrapped up far too tightly with oil. But the more important aspect of this statement is that the reference to “long-term energy security” makes no sense unless it is assumed that the nation’s natural gas resource is not large enough to last until technology can deliver other energy answers. Supplies Are Much More Abundant Than Policymakers Apparently Assume Both of these perceptions of natural gas are simply incorrect. First, the Secretary’s assumption that the industry cannot or will not bring forth the deliverability needed to serve new, expanded markets is completely refuted by the remarkable growth of deliverability over the last several years—and by the fact that in the current economic downturn, the industry has virtually had to stop drilling in order for supply growth simply to flatten out. I am fond of pointing out that between 2005 and 2008, we added onshore domestic natural gas deliverability that exceeds the thermal content of all our imports from Saudi Arabia. That is just the beginning. Producer estimates of shale deliverability within the next decade (assuming a healthy consuming market) indicate that it could increase U.S. gas supplies by some 30 percent. That is enough natural gas to displace either a large share of U.S. vehicle fuel, or more than half of the coal used to generate power—or, more likely, some more modest combination of both. Second, what does happen if this increase in deliverability is encouraged by market forces and embraced by lawmakers (by refraining from doing things like raising taxes on natural gas producers)? Are we endangering the nation’s future energy security? The resource estimates, starting with last year’s Navigant Consulting study and running through every credible expert’s work since, certainly indicate that is not the case. Even if we use the sharp ramp-up in deliverability that producers indicate is feasible right now and over the next couple of decades, the known resource would still last over seventy years. And that recoverable resource base is a moving target, simply the share of the much-larger “gas in place” determined to be recoverable with current technology. Technology keeps improving, which means the recoverable resource can be expected to get bigger. The magnitude of the deliverability that many in the industry believe can come forth is pretty stunning. Figure 1 shows four levels of potential shale production through 2030. 
Starting from the Energy Information Administration’s 2008 estimates, we first see a significant increase in that curve, just in one year, with this year’s outlook. That change by itself was sufficient to minimize EIA’s estimate of LNG imports. But then we have the projection of what happens if the recent rate of increase continues, but flattens out from an exponential rate of change to a straight line. Then last, we have the recent estimates actually presented to investors by some of the top producers. The variation between EIA’s estimate and that top estimate is about 28 Bcf/day, around 50 percent of today’s total U.S. production. The impact on total domestic supply is equally dramatic. Figure 2 shows total domestic production with the EIA 2009 estimate, layered with the “straight line” projection of recent history, then with the actual producer estimates. 
Reflecting just the change in shale, without potential improvements in tight sands and other unconventional supplies, total domestic deliverability gets up close to 90 Bcf/day, an increase over current levels that could support major displacement of imported oil or low-efficiency coal plants without creating any “tension” in supply-demand. Obviously, a lot of things have to go right for this kind of unprecedented growth in production. But that is why the source of the projection is so important. It is not coming from a consultant, opining that this is what is possible. It is coming from the producers who have identified the resource with state-of-the-art geo-science, and who have successfully mastered the art of extracting it efficiently. They just need a market that will ask for the gas on a steady, growing basis, and a set of governmental policies that do not get in their way (and they don’t need stimulus money to do this). How long could this go on? Based on the resource potential identified in last year’s study, this kind of increased production/use could continue for over 70 years. The bottom line is that when energy policy fails to seize on the U.S. natural gas resource as a primary tool to meet greenhouse gas and energy independence goals because of an implicit assumption that natural gas is in short supply, a mistake of monumental proportion is being made. Rick Smead is a director in Navigant Consulting’s natural gas practice in Houston.
|
|
|
Back Home
Back to Top
|
 |
|
|
Corn and Coal: The Cornerstones of Obama...
By Robert Bryce
Feb. 5 2010, 5:47 EST
|
US Biodiesel: The Never-ending Subsidy S...
By Russ Finley
Feb. 3 2010, 4:17 EST
|
China And The “Deniers”: Why Climate Cha...
By Michael Economides, ET editor in chief, and Xina Xie, ET China correspondent
Feb. 2 2010, 11:41 EST
|
Obama’s “Clean Energy” Pandering: His St...
By Robert Bryce
Jan. 29 2010, 4:10 EST
|
Married to Mendacity: Growth Energy Cont...
By Robert Bryce
Jan. 27 2010, 4:27 EST
|
Chinese Coal Prices Soar, Power Producer...
By Xina Xie
Jan. 25 2010, 11:43 EST
|
White House Needs New Look At Energy
By Michael J. Economides, Editor-in-Chief
Jan. 22 2010, 12:49 EST
|
Bryce v. Pickens Tonight on Fox Business...
By Robert Bryce
Jan. 21 2010, 2:36 EST
|
America’s Future Auto Fleet: Electric Ca...
By G. Allen Brooks
Jan. 20 2010, 12:30 EST
|
2009 US Petroleum Trends
By Geoffrey Styles
Jan. 19 2010, 12:50 EST
|
Robert Bryce Talks With Author Mark West...
By Robert Bryce
Jan. 15 2010, 10:38 EST
|
China Pushes for Coal Gasification
By Xina Xie
Jan. 14 2010, 12:01 EST
|
|
|
|
US Coal Industry Balks at Proposal for H...
By Steel Guru
Feb. 8 2010, 12:59 EST
|
BP Shareholders Protest Canadian Oil San...
By Fred Pals
Feb. 8 2010, 12:51 EST
|
US Seeks Access to Nuclear Program of Pa...
By The News
Feb. 8 2010, 12:49 EST
|
Ukraine Says No Gas War with Russia
By RIA Novosti
Feb. 8 2010, 12:45 EST
|
Iran Discovers New Oil, Gas Fields
By Tehran Times
Feb. 8 2010, 12:25 EST
|
Arctic Sea Ice Vanishing Faster Than Mod...
By Bruce Owen
Feb. 8 2010, 12:16 EST
|
Fear and Farce of Climate Change Science
By Eric Reguly
Feb. 8 2010, 12:07 EST
|
Beyond the Black Stuff: Big Oil is Being...
The Economist
Feb. 5 2010, 11:37 EST
|
Energy Flow, Emergent Complexity, and Co...
By George Mobus
Feb. 5 2010, 11:27 EST
|
High Hopes for Clean Energy Jobs
By Rebecca Smith
Feb. 5 2010, 11:22 EST
|
Improved Lithium Ion Batteries
By Adam Frucci
Feb. 5 2010, 11:09 EST
|
Shell to Sell Oil Leases in Nigeria
By Elisha Bala Gbogbo
Feb. 5 2010, 11:02 EST
|
|
|
|
Home Owners in Barnett Shale Lease Dilem...
By Jack Smith
Feb. 8 2010, 12:19 EST
|
5 Dead in Gas Plant Explosion
By Michelle McLaughlin
Feb. 8 2010, 12:10 EST
|
Gas Sites Spur Air Worries
By Ben Casselman
Feb. 5 2010, 11:39 EST
|
Oil, Gas Output Rise in Colorado
By KRDO
Feb. 5 2010, 11:20 EST
|
Comparison of US Plans to Cap Carbon
By Timothy Gardner
Feb. 5 2010, 11:12 EST
|
Fed Doubts Energy States will Recover Fi...
By Stephen C. Fehr
Feb. 5 2010, 10:50 EST
|
Congress Ups Debt Limit, Then Votes to C...
By David Lightman
Feb. 5 2010, 10:41 EST
|
EPA’s New Biofuel Rules
By Geoffrey Styles
Feb. 4 2010, 4:40 EST
|
Obama Touts His Alternative Fuels Plan
By John Broder
Feb. 4 2010, 10:49 EST
|
Argentina Protests Over Oil Prospecting
By Sunday Morning Herald
Feb. 3 2010, 11:25 EST
|
Oil and Trucking Industries Challenge Ca...
By Dale Kasler
Feb. 3 2010, 11:12 EST
|
We Can’t Fight Two Wars at Once
By Alex Spillius
Feb. 3 2010, 10:50 EST
|
|
|
|
Italy’s Nuclear Plans At Risk
By Israel Rafalovich, ET Roving European Correspondent
Feb. 4 2010, 5:48 EST
|
U.K. Eyes Energy Reforms
By Selina Williams
Feb. 3 2010, 11:19 EST
|
BP Profits Slide on US Refineries
By Robin Pagnamenta
Feb. 3 2010, 11:03 EST
|
Jordan Wants Nuclear Power, Signs Agreem...
By Israel Rafalovich, ET Roving European Correspondent
Feb. 2 2010, 1:15 EST
|
Demand for Natural Gas to Rise
By The Peninsula
Feb. 2 2010, 11:27 EST
|
Gazprom to Extend Polish Contract on Eur...
By Tehran Times
Feb. 1 2010, 11:56 EST
|
BP Chief Hails American Breakthrough in ...
By Terry Macalister
Jan. 29 2010, 11:29 EST
|
Karzai: UK Troops Needed for 15 Years
By Ben Farmer
Jan. 28 2010, 10:56 EST
|
Science Chief Calls for Honesty on Clima...
By Ben Webster
Jan. 27 2010, 10:55 EST
|
European Offshore Wind Capacity up to 57...
By New Energy Focus
Jan. 19 2010, 10:41 EST
|
Preserve Coal Plants to Keep Lights On
By Tim Webb
Jan. 19 2010, 10:35 EST
|
France Cuts, Germany Debates Solar
By UPI
Jan. 15 2010, 11:14 EST
|
|
|
|
Russia, Venezuela Step Up Oil Cooperatio...
By Mu Xuequan
Feb. 1 2010, 11:28 EST
|
Belarus, Russia End Oil Supply Row
By Jacob Gronholt Pedersen
Jan. 28 2010, 11:12 EST
|
Gazprom to Increase Gas Supplies to Euro...
By RIA Novosti
Jan. 27 2010, 11:08 EST
|
BP Offers Technology, Expertise to Devel...
By RIA Novosti
Jan. 22 2010, 2:06 EST
|
Poland to Deploy U.S. Missiles Near Russ...
By Judy Dempsey
Jan. 22 2010, 12:46 EST
|
Ukraine Should Join Nord Stream Gas Proj...
By RIA Novosti
Jan. 19 2010, 10:50 EST
|
U.S. Dethroning Russia as Gas King
By Anatoly Medetsky
Jan. 14 2010, 10:57 EST
|
Turkey Approves Russian Gas Pipeline
By CCTV
Jan. 14 2010, 10:53 EST
|
Turkmenistan Resumes Gas Supplies to Ru...
By China View
Jan. 11 2010, 2:15 EST
|
Russia, Belarus End Oil Supply Talks Wit...
By China View
Jan. 11 2010, 2:11 EST
|
Venezuela, Russia May Develop More Orino...
By Jose Orozco
Jan. 4 2010, 10:46 EST
|
Russian Seaborne Crude Oil Exports Sched...
By Alexander Kwiatkowski
Dec. 30 2009, 10:59 EST
|
|
|
|
Gas Transfer to Europe Key in Turkey, Ir...
By Today’s Zaman
Feb. 8 2010, 12:55 EST
|
Iran, Pakistan to Ink Gas Deal in Turkey
By Tehran Times
Feb. 8 2010, 12:42 EST
|
Iraqi Officials Lament Failure To Refine...
By Radio Free Europe
Feb. 4 2010, 11:50 EST
|
Gas Transfer to Europe Key in Turkey, Ir...
By Today’s Zaman
Feb. 4 2010, 11:44 EST
|
Afghan Fight is Coming
By Rod Nordland
Feb. 4 2010, 11:18 EST
|
Oil Majors Move in on Iraq
By Oil Voice
Feb. 4 2010, 11:12 EST
|
Dubai Discovers New Oil Field
By Adam Schreck
Feb. 4 2010, 10:53 EST
|
Oil Demand Recovery Underway
By Trading Room
Feb. 2 2010, 11:25 EST
|
Saudis Want Taliban to Expel Bin Laden
By Abdullah Al Shihri
Feb. 2 2010, 11:01 EST
|
Iran Plans To End Energy Subsidies
By Andres Cala, European correspondent
Feb. 1 2010, 12:36 EST
|
Bulgaria and Turkey Agree on Natural Gas...
By Reuters
Feb. 1 2010, 11:54 EST
|
Lukoil to Develop Iraq Supergiant Oil Fi...
By Peoples Daily
Feb. 1 2010, 11:44 EST
|
|
|
|
China may Renew Record for Crude Oil Imp...
By China Post
Feb. 5 2010, 10:57 EST
|
China’s Oil Giants to Develop Iraq Oil F...
By People’s Daily
Jan. 28 2010, 11:21 EST
|
As China Rises, Conflict With West Rises...
By Katrin Benhold
Jan. 27 2010, 10:31 EST
|
China’s Oil Imports Continued Upward Cli...
Michael J. Economides, editor-in-chief, and Xina Xie, China editor
Jan. 26 2010, 10:41 EST
|
Sino-Kazak Pipeline Transports 20 mln to...
By Istock Analyst
Jan. 25 2010, 11:14 EST
|
China’s Economy is Soaring
By Zhou Xin and Chris Buckley
Jan. 21 2010, 10:53 EST
|
China’s US Purchases Up 300% in 2009
By Vincent Fernando
Jan. 19 2010, 10:16 EST
|
China Completes 1st Phase of Oil Reserve...
By China Daily
Jan. 18 2010, 10:57 EST
|
China Will Drive Future Car Demand
By NPR
Jan. 12 2010, 10:21 EST
|
Cold Snap Triggers Power Shortage in Chi...
By AFP
Jan. 11 2010, 2:36 EST
|
Oil Falls on Concern Investment May Slow...
By Ann Koh
Jan. 8 2010, 11:33 EST
|
Cold Snap Spurs Power Rationing in China
By Chris Buckley
Jan. 6 2010, 3:47 EST
|
|
|
|
Chevron Finds Natural Gas Off Australia
By Anna Driver
Jan. 27 2010, 11:11 EST
|
Another Gorgon Deal to Supply LNG
By ABC News
Jan. 8 2010, 11:42 EST
|
Australian $90 Billion Gas Megadeal with...
By Felicity Williams
Jan. 7 2010, 2:22 EST
|
Chevron Finds More Gas Off Western Austr...
By The Sunday Morning Herald
Dec. 15 2009, 10:32 EST
|
New Zealand on Verge of Oil Boom
By Oil Voice
Nov. 24 2009, 4:01 EST
|
Apache, Kuwait Join Chevron In Wheatston...
By Angel Gonzalez
Oct. 23 2009, 11:45 EST
|
Chevron Pushes Forward On Gorgon
By Geoffrey Styles
Sep. 21 2009, 10:08 EST
|
The Ghost Fleet of the Recession
By Simon Parry
Sep. 14 2009, 11:52 EST
|
Australian Parliament Rejects Carbon Tra...
By Reuters Staff
Aug. 13 2009, 10:43 EST
|
North Korea ''Test Fires Missiles''
By BBC Staff
Jul. 2 2009, 11:14 EST
|
North Koreans Condemn U.S. and Sanctions...
By CHOE SANG-HUN
Jun. 26 2009, 12:36 EST
|
Wind Turbines Killing Sleep Deprived Goa...
By Telegraph Staff
May. 22 2009, 11:08 EST
|
|
|
|
India Suggests Deregulating Gasoline, Di...
By Sunil Raghu
Feb. 3 2010, 11:23 EST
|
African Oil Fields on India Radar
By The Financial Express
Dec. 9 2009, 4:35 EST
|
Bangladesh to Revive Debate Over Myanmar...
By Pipelines International
Nov. 13 2009, 11:46 EST
|
RIL Discovers Oil in Cambay Basin
By Business Standard
Nov. 10 2009, 2:38 EST
|
India, Scotland Join Hands On Renewable ...
By EE Times India
Oct. 16 2009, 11:48 EST
|
Indian Subcontinent Weighs Nuclear
By Priyanka Bhardwaj and Michael J. Economides
Oct. 8 2009, 11:59 EST
|
Cameco Upbeat on Canada-India Nuclear De...
By Cameron French
Oct. 2 2009, 12:13 EST
|
Reliance Natural Seeks Dismissal of Gove...
By P.S. Patnaik and Gaurav Singh
Sep. 18 2009, 11:05 EST
|
Tangguh Plant To Ship Less LNG
By The Jarkata Post
Sep. 4 2009, 12:05 EST
|
Repsol Natural Gas Lot Production To Sta...
By Reuters
Aug. 28 2009, 11:52 EST
|
India’s Coal Needs Fuel Overseas Push
By Priyanka Bhardwaj
May. 28 2009, 4:25 EST
|
India Chooses Coal, Not Kyoto
By Priyanka Bhardwaj and Robert Bryce
May. 11 2009, 12:39 EST
|
|
|
|
India Draws Strategy in African Oil Asse...
By The Hindu
Feb. 8 2010, 12:40 EST
|
Nigerian Militants Claim Attack on Pipel...
By Seattle Times
Feb. 8 2010, 12:13 EST
|
Angola Oil Pipeline Attacked, by Swordfi...
By Matthew Clark
Feb. 4 2010, 12:29 EST
|
Nigeria’s Oil Pipeline Sabotaged
By BBC
Feb. 1 2010, 11:05 EST
|
Nigerian Militants Call off Oil Truce
By Scott Baldauf
Feb. 1 2010, 11:02 EST
|
Nigeria, UAE Supplies put OPEC Crude Pro...
By Iheanyi Nwachukwu
Jan. 27 2010, 11:05 EST
|
Nigeria Hopes to Fulfill Oil Contracts S...
By Reuters
Jan. 26 2010, 12:05 EST
|
Uganda to Block British Oil Bid
By AFP
Jan. 22 2010, 2:00 EST
|
Two Million Nigerian Vehicles to Run on ...
By Guardian Newspapers
Jan. 20 2010, 11:36 EST
|
Pirates Free Oil Tanker After Record Ran...
By Abdi Guled and Abdi Sheikh
Jan. 19 2010, 10:14 EST
|
Dana Gas Finds Oil in Egypt
By Ed Attwood
Jan. 12 2010, 10:45 EST
|
Sudan Seeks to Buy Natural Gas from Egyp...
By Sudan Tribune
Jan. 11 2010, 2:27 EST
|
|
|
|
Iran Plans 10 New Enrichment Plants
By Washington Post
Feb. 8 2010, 12:02 EST
|
Obama’s Nuclear Power Policy
By Mark Clayton
Feb. 5 2010, 11:16 EST
|
Iran Accepts West’s Nuclear Deal
By BBC
Feb. 3 2010, 11:09 EST
|
Iran Urges Islamic States to Possess Nuc...
By People’s Daily
Feb. 2 2010, 11:44 EST
|
US, Russia Near Deal on Nuclear Weapons
By Jonathan S. Landay
Feb. 2 2010, 11:06 EST
|
Italy Seeks Arab Role on Nuclear Row
By The International News
Jan. 26 2010, 12:21 EST
|
Russia Warns Against Rushing to Iran San...
By Reuters
Jan. 22 2010, 12:27 EST
|
U.S., Russia Never so Close on Iran Nucl...
By Mu Xuequan
Jan. 21 2010, 11:20 EST
|
India, Hungary Hold Talks on Civil Nucle...
By Sachin Parashar
Jan. 20 2010, 11:44 EST
|
Iran Rejects Nuclear Fuel Deal
By BBC
Jan. 20 2010, 11:09 EST
|
German Minister Tough in Nuclear Talks
By Reuters
Jan. 18 2010, 11:26 EST
|
Ahmadinejad Hails Iran’s Nuclear Progres...
By RIA Novosti
Jan. 15 2010, 11:24 EST
|
|
|
|
Bid to Develop Oil Sector in Libya Gathe...
Feb. 8 2010, 1:00 EST
|
Japanese firm to delay start of Egypt oi...
Feb. 8 2010, 1:00 EST
|
Wintry Weather Drives Energy Prices High...
Feb. 8 2010, 1:00 EST
|
Arab states may become solar energy expo...
Feb. 8 2010, 1:00 EST
|
US average gasoline price in four week s...
Feb. 8 2010, 1:00 EST
|
Indonesia considering slowdown in coal e...
Feb. 8 2010, 1:00 EST
|
China to increase LNG import
Feb. 8 2010, 1:00 EST
|
Cnooc Falls After Report of Possible Uga...
Feb. 8 2010, 1:00 EST
|
Climategate Scientist Considered Suicide
Feb. 8 2010, 1:00 EST
|
Biofuel Production Falls Far Short of Ta...
Feb. 5 2010, 1:00 EST
|
How Nigeria is sabotaging the global oil...
Feb. 5 2010, 1:00 EST
|
Europe Gasoline falls as economy concern...
Feb. 5 2010, 1:00 EST
|
|
|
|
|
|
|