The motives behind the region’s renewed interest in nuclear power are clear. Dependence on traditional sources such as hydro and natural gas have left the region’s power grids vulnerable in recent years, while concerns over global warming have put a damper on coal’s popularity. But environmental and political opposition make the future of some projects less certain, especially in smaller countries where nuclear power is still considered an expensive and potentially dangerous technology. Nevertheless, nuclear power in the region will likely boom in coming years, surging in larger countries although lagging in smaller ones, particularly Uruguay and Venezuela.

The bigger countries will have an easier time developing new nuclear plants, due in part to their experience with nuclear programs (see Figure 1) and in the case of Brazil and Mexico, the financial clout to develop programs quickly. Argentina and Brazil also boast the capacity to mine and enrich uranium, while other South American countries have uranium mining capacity that eventually could become a regional supply source.

Although nuclear power represents a small fraction of Latin America’s generation (see Figure 2), reactors have proven reliable when hydroelectric reservoirs have been fickle and natural gas supplies restricted.

In addition, Mexico, Brazil, and Argentina will save on development costs by either expanding existing plants or finishing projects that stalled years ago. In Mexico’s case, the government aims to expand capacity to 1,620 megawatts at the existing Laguna Verde plants in Veracruz State. Brazil’s newest project entails completing construction of the 1,350 MW Angra III plant, which stalled in the mid-1980s due to funding shortages. The government decided in June 2007 to restart work in the $4 billion project, having previously invested about $800 million. France’s Areva NP will provide the technology. Argentina is taking a similar path, restarting construction of its 745 MW Atucha II plant, where construction stopped in the mid-1990s even though the project was about 80 percent complete. German multinational Siemens is providing technical assistance. The country also plans to upgrade its Embalse plant.

The three projects will come online next decade, and will lead to larger and more ambitious ones if they succeed. Mexico’s energy ministry aims to start feasibility studies for a new program that would double its nuclear capacity, although there are no plans to put the reactor online before 2015. In addition to Angra III, Brazil plans to build four plants by 2030, each with 1 gigawatt of capacity, and is mulling project locations, which would all be in the same vicinity. Argentina also intends to start feasibility studies for a new plant, although the government’s fiscal problems may stall the project.

On the other hand, Chile could very well go nuclear, as the country is suffering a severe power crisis due to dry weather and gas restrictions. As the world’s largest producer of copper, currently recording record highs on international markets, Chile has the means to deal with its power crunch and has started high-level studies on nuclear options. But planners are concerned that Chile lacks the human capital needed to run a nuclear program, and environmental groups are hotly opposed to the issue. In Chile, however, cooler heads generally prevail, and nuclear power companies from Canada, the U.S., and France are lining up to help the country build a nuclear program that likely would not exceed 1 GW due to its small grid size. It’s a safe bet a company from one of those countries will help Chile join the nuclear club some time over the next decade.