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The Middle East's Struggle for Electrical Power
By Peter Glover
Posted on Dec. 18, 2007
The energy-rich countries of the Gulf share a worrying paradox: providing sufficient electricity for their booming economies. In 2006, the Middle East’s 5.7 percent economic growth rate was almost twice that of the world’s advanced economies. But powering that growth is placing an enormous strain on its electricity infrastructure. According to BP’s 2007 Statistical Review of World Energy, electricity production in the Middle East grew 8.9 percent between 2005 and 2006 – that’s faster than the growth recorded in any other region, including Asia Pacific, which grew by 8.5 percent. More important from the global perspective: as Mideast power production rises to meet surging demand, more hydrocarbons that might once have been exported are instead being burned to create electricity for local consumption. And that means less oil and natural gas will reach the global market. The demand for power in the region has led to massive investment programs. The World Energy Council estimates that the six countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) – Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman, Kuwait, and the U.A.E. – will require 100,000 megawatts of additional power over the next 10 years to meet demand. And the GCC countries have already committed investments of some $100 billion to the power sector. The race is on to keep the lights across the Middle East burning, economically and literally. Here is a rundown of what’s happening. United Arab Emirates - Demand rose by nearly 9 percent a year between 1996 and 2001. - The electricity sector requires $8 billion in investment over the next eight years to meet demand. - The government plans to expand its 9,500 MW of installed capacity by over 50 percent over the next 10 years. - The Dubai Electricity and Water Authority (DEWA) has just unveiled Jebel Ali, the $1.7 billion, 1,300 MW power and desalination plant. - South Korea’s Doosan Heavy Industries and Construction has recently won a $1.14 billion contract to build a thermal power plant for DEWA. Kuwait - Kuwait has one of the world’s highest per capita rates for electricity consumption. - Electricity demand is expected to rise at around 7 to 9 percent per year over coming years. - Investment of $4 billion is required to expand capacity over the next 10 years. - Two major new power plants are planned: the 2,400 MW Al-Zour North plant, and the 1,000 MW Al-Zour South II plant. Bahrain - Capacity is struggling to meet demand, as Bahrain awaits a $26 billion upgrade of its power grid. - The eastern power station project is expected to double Bahrain’s current capacity between 2009 and 2020. Meanwhile, the emirate has stated its readiness to buy electricity from Saudi Arabia to meet anticipated shortfalls. Oman - Power consumption is increasing at 5 percent per year, and the government estimates electricity demand in 2015 will be 75 percent higher than it is today. - Oman has just opened three power plants: Al Kamil Power, AES Barka, and Dhofar Power. They are part of the effort that will boost the country’s capacity from 2,544 MW in 2006 to 4,634 MW by 2013. Qatar - Qatar Petroleum is currently seeking $2.5 billion to finance construction of the vital new 2,600 MW Ras Laffan C power plant. Other major investment will be poured into national and regional power grid expansion. Work began in September on the most important, the GCC Power Grid, a multi-billion-dollar project that will link the six GCC countries with an integrated electricity grid by 2010. The other major project is the Saudi-Egyptian Power Grid. In September, Egypt confirmed the technical feasibility of the electrical interconnectivity of the Saudi and Egyptian power grids. These two grids are seen as the nucleus of a Middle East pan-Arab power grid that will eventually link to the world’s largest electrical interconnection scheme, the Mediterranean Ring. 
So where will the fuel come from, and what about the Saudis?
Natural gas may be the fuel of choice for power generation in the region, but there is a shortage of gas. The Saudis and other big oil producers in the Persian Gulf reinject huge quantities of gas into their oil fields to help maintain oil output. Diverting natural gas to other purposes, including electricity production, could result in falling oil output. Furthermore, natural gas demand in the region is soaring. According to data from the Energy Information Administration, Middle East gas consumption will likely double between now and 2025. Over the summer, the U.A.E. was forced to divert gas from its oilfield injection program to run its power stations. The gas shortage in the U.A.E. may be alleviated for a while, thanks to the July opening of the Dolphin Gas Project, which carries gas from Qatar’s giant North Field to the U.A.E. By early next year, the Dolphin pipeline will be carrying about 2 billion cubic feet per day. The shortage of natural gas has led to some odd outcomes. In a variation on the coal-to-Newcastle idea, Qatar (which sits atop the world’s third largest gas reserves) and Saudi Arabia are both considering the possibility of building coal-fired power plants. And believe it or not, the Saudis might need to do just that. Saudi Arabia has one of the highest per capita electricity consumption rates in the Middle East, and that means that increasing amounts of Saudi crude will be diverted from the export market toward internal electricity production. With a population of 25.8 million that is growing 2.4 percent a year, electricity demand is rising by 7 percent or more a year. It is estimated that Saudi Arabia’s current generating capacity of 26.6 gigawatts will require up to 20 GW of additional capacity by 2019. The kingdom’s power infrastructure is expected to need an investment of about $5 billion per year for the next 15 years. Several major power and water projects are already underway, including the $1.9 billion Shuqaiq Independent Water and Power Project. The Saudis are also a key investor in both the GCC and the Saudi-Egyptian power grid developments. New power plants at Rabigh and Riyadh will add over 3,000 MW of capacity, with Rabigh to become operational in 2012 and Riyadh in 2013. Another plant, Ras Azzour, still needs around $4 billion in funding, 25 percent more than originally anticipated. All three plants will be oil fired. That likely means that tens of thousands of barrels of oil per day that would otherwise have been exported will now be diverted to Saudi Arabia’s electricity sector. 
Saudi Arabia recently unveiled a plan to build six “smart” cities that aim to attract investment with smart design and enormous computer power. The cities are expected to have up to 5 million residents. Obviously, Saudi planners believe that vast oil revenues and growing internal investment will continue to be sufficient to energize the kingdom’s economic growth.
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