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TOTAL Gets Shtokman
By Robert Bryce and Pavel Romanov
Posted on Aug. 17, 2007
The long deadlock over Shtokman, Russia’s giant gas condensate field, has finally been broken, and French supermajor Total appears to be the winner. In mid-July, Total won a 25 percent stake in the field, which will likely require about $15 billion in investment during the first phase of development. Gazprom holds the remaining stake, but there are rumors that the company may sell 24 percent of its share to a consortium of Norwegian companies that includes Norsk Hydro and Statoil.The deal with Total ends the years of jockeying for Shtokman by the international energy companies. In 2005, Gazprom announced a short-list that included Statoil, Total, Chevron, Norsk Hydro, and ConocoPhillips. But in the end, Gazprom declared that it wasn’t going to share the project with any outside companies. Of course, it didn’t have the ability to undertake the project alone. And that meant that the project would be delayed for years, even though it had all of the necessary ecological and safety approvals from the Russian government. But then Gazprom suddenly announced that the development of Shtokman, which holds 3.7 trillion cubic meters (129.5 Tcf) of gas and 31 million tons (about 200 million barrels) of condensate, was going forward with Total as the key foreign partner. Shtokman’s potential reserves make it one of the world’s largest natural gas and condensate fields. It will also be one of the most technically challenging. Located in the central part of the Barents Sea, it is within 600 kilometers of the port of Murmansk and has water depths from 320 to 340 meters. Produced gas will be exported via pipeline to Europe, and perhaps to the U.S. in the form of LNG.
With Europe as Shtokman’s major market and with European companies on board, Gazprom may have awarded Total a share of the giant field to ensure a measure of immunity in case of any delivery shortfalls. Total could become Gazprom’s whipping boy if the production schedule falls behind or if the contracted gas cannot be delivered. There is further speculation that Total might have received a portion of Shtokman in exchange for giving back 50 percent of the Kharyaga field, one of three remaining production-sharing agreements in Russia. So although Total won a share of Shtokman, it’s not yet clear how profitable the deal will ultimately be. For proof of that, look no further than the treatment meted out in recent months to BP and Shell.
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