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Pemex: From Bad to Worse
ET Staff
Posted on Jun. 20, 2007
The good news for Mexico? “We have the reserves. The bad news is that we can’t develop them.” That’s the opinion of Sergio Galina Hidalgo, manager of research at the Mexican Petroleum Institute in Mexico City. Galina says that Mexico’s national oil company, Pemex, continues to have record pre-tax profits, but is unable to use those profits to maintain its oil output, a worrying sign for both Mexico and the U.S. In particular, the faltering oil production at Cantarell, the world’s second-largest oil field (after Saudi Arabia’s Ghawar) has Pemex watchers concerned. Since 2005, its production has dropped from about 2 million barrels per day to about 1.6 mbpd. That decline is expected to continue, by about 14 percent annually. It’s not just the production. The Mexican government treats Pemex like a giant piggy-bank. Since 2002, Pemex’s total debt has exceeded its annual revenues. And throughout that same period, the Mexican government has levied an ever-higher tax load on the company. Between 2001 and 2006, total taxes paid by Pemex nearly doubled, reaching $54 billion in 2006. Those taxes have meant that, since 2000, Pemex has been allowed to show profits in just one year (2006) – an amazing situation, given the boom in global oil prices. Last year, the company’s debt nearly equaled its assets, and total debt exceeded total revenues by some $13.6 billion. 
That bleak financial picture at Pemex should worry the Mexican government, which gets 37 percent of its revenues from the oil sector. It should also concern the U.S., since Mexico is its second-largest supplier of crude.
Mexico continues to hope that it will find salvation in the offshore, particularly in the deepwater. Pemex claims deepwater reserves of about 29.5 billion barrels of oil equivalent – a huge percentage of Mexico’s claimed reserves of some 53 billion barrels. The problem is that those offshore estimates are based on just a handful of wells. According to Petroleum Intelligence Weekly, since 2004 Pemex has drilled just six deepwater wells, none of them in water depths exceeding 1,000 meters. Pemex claims it can begin deepwater production by 2014, but there’s little evidence to support that timeline. It has been holding discussions with Petrobras, which has the deepwater expertise that Pemex so desperately needs. But negotiations between the two have stalled due to Mexico’s reluctance to give Petrobras an equity stake in any new drilling ventures. Even should Pemex and Petrobras manage to reach an agreement on an equity deal, Pemex will still have to overcome Mexico’s decades-long nationalistic attitude toward its oil industry. Giving Petrobras an equity stake would require a change in Mexico’s constitution, which currently prohibits foreign-company ownership in oil-drilling projects. And changing the country’s constitution could take years – if it’s even possible.
“Pemex estimates it will need $17 billion in yearly investments for the next 10 years and I don’t see where we are going to get the money,” says Galina, who points out that virtually all of Pemex’s capital expenditures are financed by debt. “The problem is that we are taking on debt to expand, and this can’t go on forever.” Finally, and perhaps most important, it appears that the Mexican Congress has little sense of urgency about the problems at Pemex. According to Galina, it recently compiled a list of the 15 biggest problems facing Mexico. Oil wasn’t one of them.
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