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Chávez’s Landslide

Posted on Jan. 15, 2007

On December 3, Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez was re-elected with the highest number of votes in the country’s history. Chávez took 62.9 percent (7,161,637) while his opponent, Manuel Rosales, got just 36.8 percent (4,196,329). This means that Chávez will hold the post for another six years, until February 2, 2013.

Although Chávez’s militant opposition cried fraud even before the election there was no evidence to support that claim. Rosales accepted defeat the night of the election – how could he not? – but promised to continue countering a leader whom he accuses of becoming increasingly authoritarian.

Chávez did not waste any time in laying out his agenda. One of the great victories of the day, he said, is to “call upon all sectors in the country to help construct the 21st century socialism.” He was emphatic that those who voted for him favor “a socialist project to construct a deeply different Venezuela.” Chávez, who declares that Fidel Castro is his “father,” dedicated his victory to the ailing 80-year-old Cuban dictator, and called it a blow against President Bush. “It is another defeat for the devil, who tries to dominate the world,” he said.

Chavez's Castro Reflection

Chávez has won a loyal following among the poor through multibillion-dollar social programs, including subsidized food, free university tuition, and cash benefits for single mothers. Many who voted for the president were clear: oil-funded social programs made the difference. Throughout his electoral campaign, Hugo Chávez has been clear and consistent. His triumph would mean the restoration of a socialist economy, the creation of a single party, and his indefinite re-election.

Chávez defended this last proposal again after the election and announced that he would install a presidential committee for the constitutional reform. “I am talking about the possibility to get the right, or scenario, or the probability of indefinite re-election; this is something that is not unusual in the world…[for] example, in Great Britain…[there] exists indefinite re-election,” he emphasized. As usual, Chávez mixes apples and oranges, but it never hurts for him to make his case.

There are no two ways about it though. Chávez’s victory, a triumph whose size even his more ardent supporters could not have predicted, shows the deep roots of populism still permeating South America. It is also a resounding repudiation of the previous oligarchic and technocratic middle class regime. Capitalism and free markets still do not work in the south. Government handouts do. And with oil at $70 or so, Chávez is a one-thousand-pound gorilla not only inside his country but globally. He has committed billions of dollars to all sorts of causes. And yet, even with these high oil prices Venezuela is running a deficit. Of course, if oil drops to $50, then Chávez could be a monkey instead of a gorilla. But that price level does not appear to be in sight and he will make sure it doesn’t happen by leading OPEC. The Venezuelan elections will likely mean high oil prices for the foreseeable future. An emboldened Chávez will continue to use the oil weapon for a dramatic increase in influence on the world stage.

Chávez has also tapped into the anti-American sentiment – ever just below the surface – that George W. Bush and his policies of late have made so easy. The Venezuelan president has fashioned himself as the international caudillo of all those wronged by the United States. There’s always room for a new Fidel Castro in Latin America, and with Chávez, one has emerged. And compared to his idol, whatever charisma Chávez lacks he makes up for with lots of petrodollars. He will prove to be bad news for the United States long after Bush leaves office. Of this, there is no doubt.

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