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Understanding E = mc2

What the Elections Mean for the Energy Sector

Posted on Dec. 11, 2006

While all elections can affect businesses, especially politically-charged ones such as the energy sector, the recent 2006 Congressional elections threaten to have more impact than most.

Several reasons for this are straightforward, but one is subject to more debate. Let’s begin with the obvious.

Democrats campaigned heavily against oil companies, though falling gas prices blunted the intensity of this assault somewhat as the election neared. The attack resonated not only with the party’s liberal base, but also with many independents and moderates, and even right-leaning populists such as Bill O’Reilly. A new upswing in oil prices could trigger all manner of government machinations, including passage of a windfall profits tax (if only to force a veto from Bush). Sadly, a downturn in oil prices will not provoke any calls for a windfall loss subsidy. The energy industry is fully entitled to its losses.

Additionally, Democrats are beholden to the religious left – that is, those who worship nature and curse man. The greenies’ power on the issue of domestic energy development was too much to overcome, even when the Democrats were in the minority. The environmental patients will now seek to expand bans on drilling, requirements for green fuel parasitism, and greenhouse gas attacks. Such restrictions could even help trigger the increased oil prices that will then be used to slander “greedy” oil companies and justify government intervention.

Democrats will go after oil not just for fun, but also for the profit of further damaging Bush. Look for investigations into Halliburton and every company with even the most tenuous tie to Bush. Oil company executives, press your best shirts; you’re going to be in televised hearings soon.

The (wounded) elephant in the room during these elections was Iraq. The Democrats will not (and likely cannot) ignore the importance of this issue in their return to power. The war, already going poorly, will now profit from the benefit of having several hundred commanders-in-chief in Congress. Premature withdrawal from Iraq could destabilize the region more than entering it did. World oil markets could soon face the very real prospect of Iranian “volunteers” streaming into southern Iraq’s oilfields to aid and train Shiite militias, just as they aided and trained Hezbollah in Lebanon in the chaos following that nation’s disintegration.

The new Congress is not all bad news though. For those seeking subsidies for economically unviable alternative energy technologies, times look good. If you’ve got an idea for a car powered by a windmill on the hood (it’s always windy there), then your big tax break may be here.

Now for the less obvious (and longer-term) election result: Analysis of the returns indicates to me that this lurch toward the Democrats was not a one-time aberration that will quickly be reversed in 2008. The shift in power could have legs. No one explanation of the GOP’s defeat is workable. Yes, the Iraq War was a huge factor, but why then did vehemently pro-war Joe Lieberman defeat anti-war poster boy Ned Lamont in Connecticut, even with the enormous disadvantage of having to run as an independent? Why did anti-war liberal Republican Lincoln Chafee lose his bid for re-election? Remarkably, a poll taken shortly after the election showed 78 percent of voters were concerned that the Democrats they had just elected would precipitate an overly hasty withdrawal from Iraq.

Corruption was cited as a cause for the voters’ shift. But neither Sen. Harry Reid’s pocket-padding land deals, nor Rep. William Jefferson’s freezer full of inexplicable cash, harmed the Democrats’ success. There was the personal corruption of Rep. Mark Foley. Yet voters in Rhode Island were happy to re-elect Patrick Kennedy.

Immigration played a role in the election. But the same electorate that overwhelmingly passed four tough anti-immigration ballot measures in Arizona, ejected tough-on-immigration players like Rep. J. D. Hayworth and candidate Randy Graf.

For every issue, glaring contradictions can be found. The only workable explanation is that voters were voting against Republicans precisely because they were Republicans. This would mean (in business terms) that the GOP has ruined its brand. “Republican” is now a net negative in many voters’ minds. And just as was the case for Democrats over the past 12 years, rehabilitating the GOP brand will take time.

Barring some major changes in philosophy by the Democrats in Congress, it could be a long hard spell ahead for the energy industries.

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