With coal-fired power plants as the primary source, India’s electricity generation sector space has been dominated by the two state run big companies NTPC (for generation) and BHEL (for equipment manufacturing).

However, a gradual shift is taking place with private players looking to play a bigger role in the country’s electricity generation business. Today, India has about 150,000 megawatts of electric generation capacity. By 2017, the government hopes to more than double capacity to some 330,000 MW, of which some 30% could be owned by private power producers. And while India’s stance toward private investment in the electric sector has changed, it’s stance toward coal has not, and that fact will have a major effect on any attempts at reaching a global consensus on carbon dioxide emission limits.

When it comes to electricity, India lags far behind much of the rest of the world and it aims to change that fact. That message was made clear by none other than Rajendra Pachauri, an Indian academic who chairs the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In July, Pachauri asked reporters “Can you imagine 400 million people who do not have a light bulb in their homes?” And he went on to explain where India was going to be getting its future power: “You cannot, in a democracy, ignore some of these realities and as it happens with the resources of coal that India has, we really don't have any choice but to use coal.”

The Indian government is pinning much of its coal-fired hopes on “ultra-mega power plants” (UMPPs). It is planning 13 UMPPs, each of which will have 4,000 MW of capacity. Industrialized provinces such as Gujarat, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and Maharashtra are expected to benefit from the construction and operation of the giant new projects. And the World Bank has helped provide some of the funding. In April, it provided a $450 million loan for a UMPP being built by Tata Power.

The government’s UMPP effort is attracting plenty of capital. Energy firms are expected to raise over $3 billion from initial share offerings over the next year or so. They include JSW Energy, Jindal Power, Indiabulls, Sterlite, GMR Energy, Adani Power, Essar Power, Usher Eco Power and Bhilwara Energy. Reports indicate proposed or new joint ventures of Indian firms with Mitsubishi, JSW and Toshiba, Bharat-Forge and Alstom SA (France), and Ansaldo Caldaie (Italy).

Gaps in the supply of power generation equipment are being plugged by BHEL and by private engineering firm L&T, which has been inundated with new orders. L&T’s chairman, A. M. Naik, recently said that his company’s order backlog has increased about 20-fold over the past two years. L&T is setting up a gas-fired power plant at Andhra Pradesh. It has also begun looking for new sources of coal in Indonesia and Australia. Furthermore, it hopes to become a major supplier to India’s nuclear power sector.

Among private power players, R-Power, headed by Anil Ambani, has shown early success. In early 2008, it raised nearly $3 billion via a direct public stock offering. It has announced projects with some 35,000 MW of capacity. Of that amount, some 3,000 MW is expected to be commissioned by 2012 and the rest by 2017. The firm is also in talks with Australian, Brazilian, American and UK mining firms for coal supplies.

Tata Power is investing nearly $4.5 billion on some 5,500 MW of capacity that is expected to be online by 2012. Most of that will come from a UMPP that is building in Gujarat state. Tata expects to be generating about 12,000 MW by 2014. Its fuel supplies are to be sourced from coal mines in Indonesia.

Essar Power is investing about $4 billion on 6,000 MW of new capacity, all of which is expected to be online by 2012. And once again, coal is the preferred fuel, with mines in Australia, Mozambique and Indonesia expected to provide the needed supplies.

As the Copenhagen climate talks approach, India’s push for UMPPs, and the coal it will need to fuel them, provide an interesting counterpoint to the belief that reducing global carbon emissions can be achieved quickly or easily.