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A Season Rich in Delusions

Posted on Oct. 17, 2006

In 1841, the British historian Charles MacKay wrote in his Memoirs of Extraordinary Popular Delusions: “In reading the history of nations, we find that, like individuals, they have their whims and their peculiarities; their seasons of excitement and recklessness, when they care not what they do. We find that whole communities suddenly fix their minds upon one object, and go in mad pursuit; that millions of people become simultaneously impressed with one delusion, and run after it, till their attention is caught by some new folly more captivating than the first.”

This fall, perhaps the most captivating folly is biofuels. Just look at California’s Proposition 87. The biofuels’ glory rests upon a postulate that energy from new dead plants is somehow superior to energy from old dead plants, buried in ancient times.

Not long ago, corn grain ethanol was the king of biofuels. Other parts of dead plant bodies were left in the fields to rest in peace and strengthen the soil. But, as we have slowly discovered, the corn ethanol king had no clothes. So a usurper – cellulosic ethanol – was hatched. As the new ruler is purely a delusion, we cannot tell if he is naked or not. Instead, we are told, the new king has the finest green clothes imaginable. The new king’s supporters tell us that His Majesty needs to devour the entire bodies of all green plants, leaving nothing for the Earth. But, we are told, the Earth loves the king so much that she will give herself to him endlessly. Then she will die. Actually, this is not quite correct. The Earth has been giving herself to all of us, and she has been withering silently for quite some time. Haven’t you noticed?

In 1720, Great Britain and the world endured the harshest crash of the stock market ever: the bursting of the South Sea Bubble. The years leading up to the South Sea Bubble were a time of great financial promise and enthusiasm for Britain. Following the War of Spanish Succession, there was the increased potential for foreign trade and the turn toward global markets (sound familiar?). The South Sea Company managed to convert a good portion of British national debt into its imaginary shares on the promise of trading wool and industrial goods for the inexhaustible gold and silver from the Spanish New World colonies. By wholesale bribery and deceit, the South Sea Company pumped up its stock 8-fold. Then it collapsed, devastating institutions and individuals alike. The prosecution of many of the major players in the crisis followed, but the stage was set for the financial collapse of France, and the bloody upheavals of the nineteenth century.

Among the many crazy offshoots of the Bubble, one showed best the utter madness of the people. An unknown adventurer created a company “for carrying on an undertaking of great advantage, but nobody [is] to know what it is.” He then required capital of half a million pounds for his endeavor. Each share was worth £100, but investors could buy it for a mere £2. Each investor would then be entitled to a dividend of £100 per year per share. In five hours, this great man collected £2,000 (equal to about $425,000 in 2006) from a mob and disappeared, never to be seen again.

If this story reminds you of stock offerings by the various biofuel bubbles today, you are right. And the man who disappeared from London almost three centuries ago was recently spotted in California offering a similar deal to the mad mob here. Now we know his name, and his new endeavor is called Proposition 87.

If you think that this biofuels story is a farce, an innocent prank to make a quick buck, think twice. Countless billions of dollars will be wasted, and even more important, the Earth will be damaged permanently – and billions of kilowatt hours of priceless energy will be wasted, too. This energy could be put to much better uses, but we first need to sober up. So, let’s drink to that!

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