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The fall and the rise of the Russian Market
Posted on May. 24, 2006
May 22 was a Black Monday for the Russian stock market. The index dropped by 9 percent, and to avoid uncontrollable collapse, trading operations were halted for 15 minutes in both the RTS and MMVB stock exchanges. Gazprom, Russia’s largest company, lost 12 percent of its market capitalization. Many other stock exchanges have also experienced a recent decline, but what happened in Russia approached a meltdown.The reaction was lame. The chief of the Federal Service for Financial Markets, Oleg Vyugin, said there “were no fundamental reasons for the fall.” But it was clear that big investment institutions decided to sell some of their positions. For the last several years the Russian stock market has shown outstanding growth, fueled mostly by rising oil prices and the resultant super-high profits of oil and gas producing companies and their traders. The rich became even richer, and the money they made was either shipped out of the country or reinvested in the stock market. In terms of growth, the Russian market was better than almost any other in the world. Average stock prices increased by 300 percent, and interest from foreign investors was keen. The general impression is that the May 22 events were for profit-taking. Some analysts had been suggesting that the market was overheated and a correction was necessary to “bleed off some air from the bubble.” In the near future, the market will likely fluctuate but not drop significantly – at least, that’s the view of some traders. On May 23, the RTS index gained back almost 9 percent, with Surgutneftegas leading the rise (+13.8 percent). Of course, in Russia’s conspiracy-laden society, there was speculation that insider information about certain announcements precipitated the sell-off to allow buying at lower prices. This seems plausible, especially after Transneft’s announcement of a new route for the East-Siberian pipeline, which is projected to pass very close to Surgutneftegas’ Talakan field. Gazprom also rose sharply after the collapse, regaining 10.94 percent – perhaps due to expectations of the forthcoming release of Gazprom’s new credit ratings by both Standard & Poor’s and Fitch. Others believe that Monday’s panic offered proof of the Russian market’s instability. It is difficult to say whether long-term positions will hold their ground. Most Russian traders do not recommend investing in long-term positions.
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