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Iran Capitalizing on Russia-Ukraine Feud
By Andres Cala
Posted on Jan. 19, 2009

Gas flares burn near an oil well in Iran. Over the past few weeks, as hundreds of thousands of Europeans were suffering from Russia’s gas cuts, Iran was busy offering itself as a reliable alternative to Gazprom. And while the worries over Iran’s nuclear aspirations continue, Russia’s continued belligerence over gas pricing, along with new US President Barack Obama’s plans to open more direct diplomatic channels to Tehran, are making Iran’s overtures more attractive. To be sure, Iran’s barrage of energy diplomacy, which coincides with Europe’s frenzy to reduce its dependence on Kremlin-controlled gas, illustrates Tehran’s need to be seen as a reliable gas exporter. For instance, shortly after Russia cut natural gas shipments through Ukraine, Iran increased gas flows to Turkey by 50 percent, to more than 630 million cubic feet per day. And according to the Oil Ministry’s newswire service Shana, Iran wants to boost its exports to Turkey to nearly 1 billion cubic feet per day. Tehran also plans to build a second pipeline to supply Europe. The backdrop for all of this, of course, is Gazprom’s pricing feud with Ukraine. The standoff ended recently when Ukraine agreed to paying a 20 percent discount on European prices in 2009 and Russia agreed to pay European-level transit prices once Ukraine pays full fare for its gas starting on 2010. About 20 percent of Europe’s overall gas demand is piped from Russia via Ukraine. While Iran wants a bigger share of the European market, it is also hoping to finalize a gas swap deal with Moscow. The agreement is being negotiated in the aftermath of the creation of the Qatar-based Gas Exporting Countries Forum, an alliance of the world’s biggest gas producers. Under the terms of the swap, Russia would pipe gas to Iran’s northern border, and Iran would ship the equivalent amount of gas to Russian customers further south. While Turkey and Europe were not singled out, Iran’s pipeline connection to Turkey could allow Russia to partially circumvent Ukraine to serve European customers. Iran is also strengthening its energy ties with Turkmenistan, a country critical to European and Asian aspirations to secure future gas supplies. Tehran reportedly signed a contract to develop a large gas field in Turkmenistan that will produce 350 bcf per year. That deal was made just days after the two countries agreed on a price formula to import 880 MMcf/d to Iran. (Iran has long relied on Turkmeni gas to supply regions in northern Iran.) As part of its gas export strategy, Iran wants to sign gas swap deals with Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan. Turkmenistan is key to western aspirations to diversify their gas supplies to reduce dependence on Russia. The country contains the South Yolotan-Osman field, the world’s fifth-largest gas field, and it is building a pipeline to supply gas to China more than 1 trillion cubic feet annually. Iranian gas will likely play a role in the planned Nabucco pipeline, a project whose primary aim is to reduce Europe’s dependence on Russian gas. The key leg of the project runs through Turkey, which is eager to join the European Union. Of course, the key foreign policy issue for Iran remains its nuclear program. And while the government insists the nuclear program is needed, it is also pushing its gas export strategy. For that to work, however, Iran will have to reduce the huge gas subsidies on domestic gas usage. Late last year, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad won initial parliamentary support for his economic reform bill which aims to eliminate direct subsidies for energy products, including natural gas. Curbing internal gas demand is essential if Iran is to free up gas for export. While all of these plans are interesting, it must be noted that Iran has been talking about ramping up its gas exports for years. And yet, for the last decade, according to the EIA, it has been a net gas importer. Whether it can actually turn that trend around remains to be seen.
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