Canada’s Oil Output Seen Growing to 3.9 Million b/d Next Year: CAPP Official

From PLATTS

Canada’s total crude oil output is expected to reach 3.9 million b/d in 2015, some 500,000 b/d more than the current output, driven primarily by small in-situ oil sands developments, each typically 35,000-40,000 b/d, an industry official said Monday.

Oil sands output in Alberta will account for 2.3 million b/d of the new barrels to be produced next year, followed by conventional light output in primarily Alberta and Saskatchewan at 1.4 million b/d and 200,000 b/d from eastern Canada, said Beth Lau, manager of oil supply and markets with the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers.

This is compared with the current production of 2 million b/d of oil sands, 1.2 million b/d of conventional and 200,000 b/d from the east, she said at the CERI 2014 Oil Conference.

“Oil sands production is growing by an average 10% each year, and we also see a reversal in the trend for conventional output, with more light barrels being produced,” Lau said.

CAPP is due to release its annual forecast in June for the nation’s oil production short, medium and long-term forecast, but Lau said it would not be any “substantially” different.

Peter Howard, director of the Canadian Energy Research Institute, said on the sidelines of the conference that although a projected crude oil output of 3.9 million b/d next year is “certainly doable,” 2015 will be a “critical” year as new pipelines that will assist in increasing the takeaway capacity of the heavy and light barrels of western Canadian crude are unlikely to be built by then.

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