Shale Oil Supply Adds to Cuts in OPEC Forecast
From The State Journal
By Pam Kasey
U.S. production of shale oil has captured the attention of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, or OPEC.
In the 12-nation group’s World Oil Outlook 2012, released Nov. 8, shale oil production contributes to a reduction in the demand forecast for OPEC oil.
“This year a rise in the importance of shale oil is expected,” the outlook reads, noting that past World Oil Outlook reference cases have not factored in significant shale oil supply.
In 2011, world supply of all petroleum liquids — mostly crude oil, but also natural gas liquids and gas-to-liquids — was 87.5 million barrels per day, or mb/d.
By 2016, the outlook for oil demand reaches 93.1 mb/d — down more than 1 mb/d from last year’s outlook.
Supply shifts significantly in this medium-term forecast, with OPEC expecting to supply 36.7 mb/d of liquids in 2012 and, by 2016, only 36.4 mb/d. Non-OPEC liquids supply grows over the same period from 53.1 mb/d to 56.6 mb/d.
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